2025 sees intense wildfire year in the Northern Hemisphere

In 2025, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS*) continued to track wildfire emissions worldwide, offering detailed insights into fire intensity, associated emissions and atmospheric impacts. Several parts of the world saw significant wildfire activity, with record high emissions in Europe, and Canada recording its second-highest annual total of carbon emissions from wildfires since the start of the CAMS fire emissions dataset in 2003. CAMS estimates that global wildfires and biomass burning released approximately 1380 megatonnes of carbon by the end of November 2025 (compared with 1850 and 1940 megatonnes of carbon in the January-November and annual respective totals of 2024), with Canada contributing 263 megatonnes of that total. Let’s take a closer look at how wildfire activity unfolded across the globe in 2025, region by region.

Biomass burning in tropical Africa remains the largest contributor to global biomass-burning emissions, including to the overall decline observed over the past two decades related to fewer savanna fires. In contrast, other regions have seen rising emissions in recent years, notably in North America (2023, 2024 and 2025) and during the record fire season in South America in 2024. The data show that, although there is a high degree of year-to-year variability, more extreme fire emissions have been increasing in recent years at different continental scales.

Daily fire locations, intensity and smoke plumes around the world between 1 January and 30 November 2025 based on CAMS GFAS and organic matter aerosol optical depth forecasts. Source: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service / ECMWF

In Europe, significant fires throughout the summer contributed to the highest annual total fire emissions on record for the European Union at just under 13 megatonnes of carbon. While carbon emissions from fires in Europe are not significantly contributing to global CO₂ emissions, the numbers can be used as a proxy for the fire emissions of many pollutants that affect air quality in the region, for example, PM2.5 and nitrogen oxides (NO_x). In particular, large wildfires developed across Spain and Portugal in late July and escalated dramatically throughout August 2025, driven by persistent heatwaves, extremely dry conditions and strong winds. In northern Portugal, large fires that began in late July continued to burn into early August, prompting a state of emergency and the deployment of more than 3,600 firefighters. In Spain, conditions deteriorated quickly in mid-August. Fires intensified across Castilla y León, Galicia, Asturias and Extremadura, killing at least three people, forcing thousands to evacuate, and burning an estimated 120,000 hectares in August alone.

CAMS monitoring showed that while emissions were initially average for the season, they rose almost vertically in the cumulative carbon emissions record in the second week of August (see below). By 17 August, the scale and intensity of the fires had surged, with CAMS data showing a sharp rise in fire intensity and smoke emissions. Air quality deteriorated over a wide area, as Spain reached its highest annual total fire emissions in 23 years. Surface PM_2.5 concentrations across large parts of the Iberian Peninsula far exceeded the WHO 24-hour average guidelines, while smoke travelled hundreds of kilometres, affecting regions as far as France, the UK and northwestern Europe.

Summer wildfire activity in France was marked by several significant outbreaks, including a major blaze in the Aude Département of southern France that ignited on 4 August between Carcassonne and Perpignan. Satellite observations showed smoke being transported over the Mediterranean.

Across the eastern Mediterranean, wildfire activity during the summer was exceptionally severe, with Greece and Turkey experiencing major outbreaks from late June into July. Thousands of residents in both countries were forced to evacuate, and at least 10 forest workers lost their lives in Turkey. Cyprus also endured its worst July wildfires in more than fifty years, resulting in two fatalities and producing the island’s highest annual emission total after only two days of burning.

The extreme conditions persisted into August, with Turkey’s emissions remaining far above the long-term average. Syria also experienced its highest August wildfire carbon emissions on record by a wide margin.

Wildfire activity extended across the wider Balkan region, with Albania, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia experiencing extreme fires during the summer. Meanwhile in the UK, Northern Scotland experienced significant wildfires in late of June and early July, resulting in the highest total estimated emissions for the UK in the 23 years of the CAMS dataset.

Canada endured its third exceptionally active wildfire year in succession in 2025, with the season starting early and intensifying rapidly. The country’s total wildfire carbon emissions for the year amounted to around 250 megatonnes of carbon by 1 October (increasing to 263 megatonnes by the end of November), second in the CAMS record only to 2023. The intense Canadian wildfire activity started early this year – in April and May unusually severe wildfire activity broke out across Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, marking only the second year with such extreme early season intensity, with the other being 2023.

Fire Radiative Power (FRP) values remained well above the 23-year average in the three provinces during June and July, reflected in exceptionally high wildfire emissions. By mid-summer, the estimated cumulative carbon emissions in Saskatchewan and Manitoba had already reached record levels – just over 66 megatonnes and around 44 megatonnes respectively. As a result, smoke plumes repeatedly blanketed large parts of Canada and North America, and on several occasions travelled across the Atlantic, reaching western, central and eastern Europe. Notable wildfire activity in Alaska in the satellite observations resulted in fairly typical emissions this year. Fires occurred mostly in June and July with some days of increased fire emissions in both months, with over one million acres burned.

Fires continued to burn across Canada and boreal North America in August and throughout September, when the largest fires were recorded in British Columbia, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon, while fire activity in Saskatchewan continued at a much lower scale than earlier in the summer. In the Pacific Northwest region, Washington state saw its highest September wildfire carbon emissions in the CAMS record at over 1.5 megatonnes, while emissions in neighbouring British Colombia were second only to the record fire year of 2023 at just under 5 megatonnes.  Smoke impacts on PM_2.5 concentrations from many of these fires were mostly localised, but high aerosol optical depth (AOD) values showed that smoke transport extended across substantial parts of North America.

Animation showing organic matter (indicating wildfire smoke in pink-magenta) and dust (in yellow-orange) Aerosol Optical Depth between 1-31 August 2025. The month started with a large Saharan dust transport across the Atlantic reaching the Caribbean and Central America and a huge smoke plume from the Canadian wildfires transported over Europe. Mid-month, the intense smoke concentrations from Portugal and Spain extreme wildfires is clearly visible. Credit: Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service / ECMWF

In early January 2025 a major wildfire outbreak struck the Los Angeles region of California, triggered by the convergence of exceptionally dry vegetation and powerful Santa Ana winds. The sequence of events was driven by what the European Centre for Medium‑Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) described as a “hydro-climate whiplash” – after a wetter than usual spring/summer in 2023-24 the region entered an exceptionally dry autumn and early winter, resulting in abundant highly flammable vegetation.

The first ignitions occurred around 7 January. GFAS daily total FRP values for California showed a significant increase on 7 and 8 January compared to the 2003-2024 mean (see below). The fires rapidly spread through the wildland-urban interface around Los Angeles and affected densely built areas, destroying thousands of buildings, forcing around 200,000 residents to evacuate and resulting in tragic loss of life. The economic losses resulting from the wildfires were projected at about US$150 billion, marking the event among the costliest in US history.

The air-quality impacts of the wildfires were severe. Surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) surged well above safe levels in and around Los Angeles. Although much smoke was transported out over the Pacific by winds, local air-quality monitoring revealed dangerous levels of exposure.

Meanwhile in South America, 2025 has been one of the lowest years for wildfire emissions on record. In Argentina, wildfires broke out in late January and continued into early February, with wildfire carbon emissions for the month at around 1.8 megatonnes. Chile also experienced increased wildfire activity towards the end of March, with total estimated carbon emissions for the month at around 0.5 megatonnes.

Later in the year, in August and September, both the number of fires and the total estimated emissions in Bolivia and Brazil were significantly lower than in the historic fire year of 2024, as well as many other years across the 23-year GFAS dataset. As a result of the low fire activity, AOD and PM_2.5 concentrations at the surface were also at low to moderate levels in both CAMS forecasts and independent observations.

In Brazil, total year-to-date wildfire carbon emissions by the end of November were at the lowest level in the CAMS record at around 80 megatonnes, with wildfire emission in Bolivia at around 12 megatonnes in the same period.

Large wildfires burned across Russia’s Far Eastern Federal District from early April, with major outbreaks in the Republic of Buryatia and Zabaykalsky Krai east of Lake Baikal, and additional fires emerging later in the month in the Sakha Republic, including within the Arctic Circle, but these were not significant in scale. CAMS GFAS data show that FRP values across the district fluctuated around average levels until mid-May, when they rose sharply; in Buryatia, FRP was above average in early April before easing and then increasing again in mid-May, while in Zabaykalsky Krai FRP remained average to well above average from April to mid-May. Correspondingly, estimated carbon emissions were high: emissions for the Federal District reached their highest level for this period since 2018 at just under 40 megatonnes, with Buryatia recording its highest emissions since 2016 (around 6 megatonnes) and Zabaykalsky Krai its highest since 2015 at almost 25 megatonnes. Fire activity continued east of Lake Baikal into mid-May, with further fires developing in Amur Oblast. CAMS forecasts in mid-May showed large smoke plumes being transported from Siberian wildfires towards northeast China and northern Japan.

In October and early November 2025, Australia experienced above-average seasonal bushfire intensity and emissions, particularly in northern tropical regions, with the ten largest fires occurring in the Northern Territory, which recorded its hottest October on record and an estimated 8 million hectares burned; CAMS aerosol optical depth analyses and forecasts also showed significant smoke transport across central Australia during this time. This followed on from higher-than average wildfire activity earlier in the year - in January Queensland recorded its highest January emissions since 2014 and the Northern Territory its highest since 2013. Overall CAMS estimates total wildfire carbon emissions for Australia for the year up to the end of November to be around 120 megatonnes and very similar to the 2003-2024 average.

In Southeast Asia, seasonal wildfire activity across the upper ASEAN region between January and April was generally below average, but still contributed to haze and severely degraded air quality in the region.

CAMS provides a 23-year dataset from its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), updated in near-real time, of the location and estimated emissions of biomass burning (including wildfires and open burning) around the world based on satellite observations of Fire Radiative Power (FRP). The estimated emissions are subject to uncertainties related to assumptions made in converting the observed FRP into the amount of fuel burned (including fuel type, shape and distribution) and subsequent emissions. The estimated emissions are used in CAMS global and regional forecasts and analyses allowing us to track smoke transport and composition and how it could impact air quality. To learn more about CAMS monitoring of wildfires and smoke, visit our page on Global fire monitoring.

GFAS is developed by a consortium led by the Norwegian Climate and Environmental Research Institute NILU. These developments provide updates to GFAS to be able to include FRP observations from other satellite sensors to ensure continuity in estimated wildfire emissions for the CAMS forecast systems.

*CAMS is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with funding from the European Commission