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The World from Berlin Hotting Up

A new UN report on the climate has kicked up a flurry of debate about what politicians should do to keep the ice caps from melting, oceans from rising, glaciers from disappearing and hurricanes from taking out more coastal cities. But how sound is the UN's climate science?
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The United Nations report on the climate released in Paris on Friday represents the world body's sharpest warning so far about man-made global warming. A summary of the report leaked to wire services this week warned that the warming of the planet and a rise in sea levels "would continue for centuries … even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized," and added it was "very likely" -- meaning 90 percent certain -- that the rise in temperatures has been caused by humans.

A report five years ago by the same UN group, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, said it was "likely," or 66 percent certain, that humans were to blame, and some scientists on the panel this year pushed for the phrase "virtually certain" -- meaning 99 percent definite. But China, among other nations, resisted the stronger language.

The report estimates that average global temperatures will rise by between 3.2 and 7.8 degrees by 2100 -- compared to a rise of 1.2 degrees in the 20th century -- and it works as an official clarion call to policymakers in the United States and Europe, who have been under pressure to "do something" about global warming since Hurricane Katrina wiped out New Orleans in 2005 and mild winters this year in Europe and the American northeast have worried even ordinary people. But is the world really warming just because Western countries feel warm? German papers on Friday morning greet the new wave of environmental concern with a mixture of skepticism, smugness and relief.

The Financial Times Deutschland writes:

"The revolution is already in gear -- but it needs a leader, a political head who can unify all the pieces of the mosaic into a grand vision ... The assignment is simple. A top politician from Europe or the United States just needs to consolidate what's already going on in corporations and research institutes today -- and find a brilliant motto for the mission. US President John F. Kennedy encapsulated the ambitions of America and the entire Western world in the 1960s with the slogan 'A Man on the Moon.' ... Whoever grasps this opportunity -- the next US president, a leading European Union politician or a certain (female) German chancellor -- would go down in history."

"So far top politicians from the US and Europe have treated oil and gas providers in Arab countries and Russia with kid gloves. But it's not a serious option for Western countries to remain dependent on fanatical or autocratic regimes for the next 100 years. Simply a credible call for energy independence would help shift the balance of power, even if real independence would be impossible for at least 20 or 30 years."

The left-wing Berliner Zeitung singles Merkel out for criticism for her opposition this week to an EU proposal to legally limit the allowable CO2 emissions made by new cars . Under pressure from Berlin and the German car-maker lobby, the European Commission backed away from the plan. The paper writes:

"Merkel met with plenty of praise when she opened her presidency of the EU this year as well as her chairmanship of the industrialized G-8 nations with a call to put climate protection at the top of the political agenda … (But) Merkel's nice words come off as mockery now that she's shifted course. As things came to a head, she genuflected -- in the face of the car industry.

"Street traffic may indeed not be the main source of planet-warming carbon dioxide. This disreputable role belongs to energy firms with coal-burning plants that are virtual CO2-spewing machines … But this is only a half-truth. Even if Europe's CO2 emissions have gone down, as a whole, since 1990, CO2 emissions from street traffic in Europe went up by one-quarter. For this reason there have to be measures to control (auto emissions) -- without political pressure nothing will change."

The financial daily Handelsblatt writes:

"(Popular) pressure has increased so much that American firms no longer see any sense in resisting climate-protection measures with both feet on the brakes. Even the crude-oil multinational Exxon, which until recently financed controversial studies by climate-change skeptics, has promised to act with more insight."

"No matter who wins the next campaign for the White House, the US will soon have greener policies. The front of Kyoto-refuseniks around President Bush is no longer solid, and nine of the 50 American states have passed climate-protection measures and threaten to go it alone. To be sure, the United States often limps far behind Europe in developing green technology. But the fear of having to import expensive oil for yet another generation has created a real motivation in (American) politics as well as economics. Europe shouldn't underestimate this dynamic."

The conservative daily Die Welt argues, however:

"According to a hypothesis published over 100 years ago by the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius, carbon dioxide plays the key role in the process of global warming on earth. ... This notion was laid aside by scientists over 50 years ago after spectroscopic measurements showed that CO2 played an insignificant role beside the most important greenhouse gas, H2O, or water vapor.

"The climate researchers in Paris haven't debated this point. They disagree only over the question of whether CO2 perhaps increases the effect of H2O, and which role vapor plays in the atmosphere. This role can vary: It can either strengthen warming by increasing the effects of radiation; or it can also cool certain layers of earth's atmosphere through convection or condensation. Which effect will win out worldwide hasn't been clarified by experiments.

"The 'climate model' discussed by everyone in Paris, which is really a water-vapor model, takes it for granted that H2O severely increases the lesser effect of CO2 through 'positive feedback.' But this one-sided theory isn't provable scientifically. It rests on political preconceptions. Anyone simply decides that CO2 is a problem can freely claim just as reliably that the opposite is the case."

-- Michael Scott Moore, 12:30pm CET